Signal
In September 2025, J. William DeMarco published a sharp analysis in War on the Rocks, showing how adversaries weaponise John Boyd’s OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) to fracture cognition at scale. Often misread as a speed tool, the OODA loop hinges on orientation: the internal process by which individuals and systems filter reality, shape perception, and trigger action. This is now the primary target. Using deepfakes, algorithmic disinformation, and psychological operations, adversaries aim not to persuade but to paralyse. By flooding the environment with distorted signals, they degrade shared sensemaking and stall adaptation.
The result is a new form of warfare. It unfolds not in terrain or cyberspace, but within minds, institutions, and societies. AI-generated content and engagement-driven platforms enable these attacks to scale, exploiting weaknesses in cognition and trust. As truth becomes contested, decision-making collapses under uncertainty.
Why it matters
The battle for orientation is a fight for internal coherence. Democracies, built on open discourse, are vulnerable to reflexive control, adversaries feeding assumptions to predetermine actions. To counter this, orientation must become a design priority across education, command structures, and technology.
Key interventions:
Education Reform: Embed cognitive bias training and decision frameworks.
Adaptive Command: Decentralised structures that function under cognitive stress.
Narrative Resilience: Shared values that can flex under pressure.
AI Safeguards: Tools to detect manipulation and preserve information integrity.
Boyd’s loop, once a tool for fighter pilots, is now a lens for decoding adversary strategy.
Strategic takeaway
Adversaries aren’t just attacking data flows. They’re targeting how we think. Winning requires cognitive systems that adapt under pressure, not collapse into paralysis.
Investor Implications
Capital will flow into firms building tools for information integrity, adversarial content detection, and secure communication. Palantir (NYSE: PLTR), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) are expanding AI safeguards for narrative resilience. Cyber-intelligence firms like Recorded Future and CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) are adding cognitive warfare modules into threat platforms. Defence contractors including BAE Systems (LSE: BA.) are funding R&D into psychological operations countermeasures. Education and training firms delivering bias and resilience programmes particularly those with government partnerships may emerge as critical actors in this space. Investors should expect growth in the “cognitive security” vertical ahead of the 2026 election cycle.
Watchpoints
20–24 October 2025 → NATO Innovation Week, Berlin. Focus: hybrid and cognitive threats.
Q4 2025 → EU Strategic Compass review. Cognitive security likely to be prioritised.
Ongoing → AI moderation tools ramping ahead of 2026 elections in allied democracies.
Tactical Lexicon - Orientation
The OODA loop phase where perception becomes structured understanding.
Why it matters:
Determines how decisions are formed under pressure.
Now the primary target in cognitive warfare.
Relevance here:
Orientation resilience is critical to democratic adaptability.
Source: warontherocks.com
The signal is the high ground. Hold it.
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