Signal
In October 2025, War on the Rocks published a seminal reflection on the shifting moral foundations of the American officer corps. The essay warns that liberalism, once the animating ethic of civil-military relations, no longer commands universal acceptance within the ranks or society. Instead of upholding liberal democratic values such as pluralism, individual rights, and lawful process, a growing cohort of officers now faces pressure to prioritise loyalty to people, factions, or cause over constitutional restraint. This shift is not hypothetical. It emerges from deep cultural, political, and institutional fractures amplified since 2020 and visible in officer education, promotion incentives, and strategic discourse. In a post-liberal context, legitimacy becomes unmoored from procedure and legality, and begins to rest on shared identity or political alignment.
Why it matters
The officer corps has long acted as a stabilising force in democratic continuity. But its legitimacy depends on a shared national ethos. When that ethos fragments, the apolitical military ideal erodes. Officers are left navigating conflicting pressures between lawful neutrality and ideological expectation. This risks a redefinition of “rightful authority” away from rule-based restraint toward identity-based justification. Such a shift compromises civilian control, politicises command, and undermines the resilience of the defence establishment in crises of succession or contested sovereignty.
Strategic Takeaway
Legitimacy is not static. It must be cultivated through doctrine, culture, and institutional design. The United States cannot rely on past norms to hold under future stress. Civil-military coherence now requires active reinforcement of liberal democratic principles within officer development.
Investor Implications
Expect rising interest in civil-military education programmes and training institutions focused on civic ethics, democratic values, and constitutional literacy. Defence firms tied to ideologically neutral functions (logistics, ISR, engineering) may outperform those involved in narrative-facing tech (information ops, social monitoring). Political legitimacy risk must now be factored into long-term strategic planning for US defence investment. Defence equities may experience volatility if civil-military tensions erupt during election cycles or emergencies. Policy analysts and fund managers should model legitimacy as a variable shaping regulatory risk and defence posture unpredictability.
Watchpoints
2026 → US midterm campaigns: tone and framing of military alignment and patriotic legitimacy.
Ongoing → Officer training reforms under debate at military academies and war colleges.
2025–26 → Congressional oversight hearings on civil-military boundaries.
Tactical Lexicon: Democratic Legitimacy
Authority granted through lawful process, civic trust, and shared constitutional norms.
Why it matters:
Enables rule-based command continuity during crisis.
Shields military from ideological capture or factional allegiance.
Sources: warontherocks.com
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