Signal
As of November 2025, Russia faces a severe police manpower crisis, with nearly 172,000 positions unfilled across the Ministry of Internal Affairs, almost 19% of total force strength. In regions like the North Caucasus and Siberia, vacancy rates reach 50–90%. The shortage stems from stagnating salaries, curtailed graft opportunities, and military siphoning: skilled officers are defecting to the frontlines for hazard pay and bonuses. Compounding this, over 500,000 war veterans are returning with combat trauma, limited economic prospects, and in some cases, illegal weapons. Crime is rising sharply—especially violent incidents and arms-related offences—while trust in law enforcement collapses. The Kremlin has begun deploying FSB and military units for internal security roles, further blurring the boundary between policing and repression.
Why it matters
The collapse of law enforcement capacity reveals the internal cost of sustained war. Russia’s ability to maintain domestic order, essential for regime continuity, is degrading. The Kremlin’s “whack-a-mole” approach to unrest may buy time but not stability. Rising gun ownership, veteran-led militias, and vigilantism suggest the emergence of armed parallel power structures. Historically, post-war Russian societies have bred criminal insurgencies; today, the scale is greater and more fragmented. If regional breakdown accelerates, Russia may face decentralised disorder that undermines its ability to project power abroad. The strategic vulnerability lies not just in battlefield losses, but in homefront corrosion.
Strategic Takeaway
State capacity is doctrine. When a regime trades sovereignty abroad for collapse at home, it loses both terrain and time.
Investor Implications
While Russia remains geopolitically assertive, its internal decay signals long-term fragility. Sovereign risk for Russian assets will rise, particularly in regions exposed to criminalisation or unrest. Border security, law enforcement tech, and internal surveillance firms may see short-term demand, but the overall environment may become too volatile for stable investment. Emerging markets funds with exposure to Russia should reassess civil unrest risk models. Additionally, NATO states should anticipate spillover effect, from refugee flows to grey-zone criminal networks—and adjust internal resilience and counter-trafficking investments accordingly.
Watchpoints
Q1 2026 → Russian budget reforms: whether law enforcement salaries are raised or recruitment incentives introduced.
2026–27 → Rise of veteran-led militias in Russian urban and border zones.
2026 → Levada Center polling on trust in state security forces and regime legitimacy.
Tactical Lexicon: State Capacity
The ability of a government to enforce law, deliver services, and maintain order through institutions rather than coercion alone.
Why it matters:
Low capacity weakens regime resilience under internal stress.
Enables criminal and insurgent actors to fill power vacuums.
Correlates directly with sovereign stability and investment risk.
Sources: kyivpost.com
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