Signal
In November 2025, the UK government committed to meeting 30% of its critical mineral demand from domestic sources by 2035, up from just 6% today. The new Critical Minerals Strategy allocates £50 million in fresh funding to support domestic extraction, midstream processing, and recycling. It sets caps on foreign supplier dependency (60% per mineral) and targets 10% production and 20% recycling by volume. Core sites include lithium in Cornwall, tungsten in Devon, and rare earth alloys from Ellesmere Port. The policy aligns Britain with EU and North American efforts to reduce reliance on China, which controls 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of processing. Demand for minerals like lithium is projected to surge 1,100% by 2035 due to electrification and AI infrastructure.
Why it matters
Minerals are no longer just commodities, they’re strategic assets. Without local supply or diversified partners, nations face systemic vulnerability to coercion or shock. The UK’s plan marks a pivot from financing to fabric: becoming not just a trader of resources, but a builder of sovereign capacity. However, its modest budget and exclusion of copper from the critical list raise questions about execution. Compared to US and Canadian efforts backed by billions, Britain’s advantage must come from regulatory agility, precision targeting, and industrial alliances, not scale alone.
Strategic Takeaway
Sovereignty in the energy transition means controlling inputs, not just outputs. Resource autonomy starts below ground.
Investor Implications
Expect capital rotation toward UK-based extraction and midstream processing ventures, especially lithium and rare earths. Cornish Lithium and Cornish Metals have already secured funding under the National Wealth Fund. Magnet recyclers like Hypromag and processors such as Ionic Technologies will likely benefit from green permitting and export incentives. Defence investors should monitor supply chain alignment with NATO’s mineral stockpiling plans. For institutional portfolios, exposure to UK minerals now carries geopolitical premium, not just commodity upside.
Watchpoints
2026 → Start of domestic tungsten and lithium production at Hemerdon and Trelavour.
2026–2027 → Environment Agency’s fast-track permitting rollout for priority minerals.
2027 → NATO critical mineral stockpile updates, including UK contributions.
Tactical Lexicon: Critical Mineral Sovereignty
The ability of a state to secure, process, and stockpile the materials essential to its industrial and defence systems.
Why it matters:
Mitigates coercion from dominant suppliers.
Anchors domestic manufacturing and strategic autonomy.
Sources: mining.com
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